Polls, Expectations, and Elections

In modern American presidential campaigning, scholars and citizens have bemoaned the effects of electronic media on voters. Much has been written about the perceived effects of TV ads, media management, perceived bias, and other issues, yet one element of today's media environment that most Americans would recognize has not been identified in the public mind. There is significant evidence that journalists regularly tell audiences what actions candidates should take on the campaign trail, based solely on whether they're leading or trailing in public opinion polls. This is referred to as "expectation setting." The rise and proliferation of this phenomenon is documented through a comprehensive content analysis of transcripts of CBS Evening News broadcasts during presidential election campaigns from 1968-2012. Richard Craig uses numerous examples from these transcripts to illustrate how television news has gone from simply reporting poll data to portraying it as nearly the only motivation for anything candidates do while campaigning. Craig argues that with the combination of heightened day-to-day coverage of campaigns and the omnipresence of poll data, in many election years campaign coverage has largely become a day-to-day series of contests, with candidates portrayed as succeeding or failing each day to meet "expectations" of what the candidate at their given position in the polls should do on the campaign trail.